With a general election on the horizon in the next year or so, the Women’s Budget Group and YouGov have looked into the public’s voting intentions – and found that women will very likely swing which political party takes power in the UK.

The new data shows that around 25% of women are currently undecided on how they will cast their vote, compared to 11% of men. This represents a significant proportion of the electorate that would swing the vote between either Labour or the Conservatives.

The survey also found that Labour has a larger lead among women than men, with women being as likely as men to vote Labour but less likely to say they’ll vote Conservative.

The likelihood of women voting Labour is higher among young women (44%). As age increases, Labour’s lead decreases, with the Conservatives in the lead in women over 65 (27%). However, women have been more inclined to vote Labour overall with each successive generation.

The YouGov data also shows that political priorities between women and men in the UK are broadly similar, but do contain a few key differences – namely when it comes to the NHS and caring responsibilities.

Nearly two thirds of women (64%) named the NHS as a top priority in the next general election, compared to just under half of men (48%). Women are also more likely to prioritise the cost of living crisis in their voting intentions, with 52% of women considering this a top priority compared to 47% of men. Climate change and the environment is also a priority for a higher proportion of women than men (30% vs 26% respectively).

The report by the Women’s Budget Group states it is “unsurprising” that women list the cost of living crisis as a priority, “since women are the majority of those who provide unpaid care, which makes them more likely to be economically inactive, in low-paid, part-time, or precarious forms of work. Women are therefore less prepared to face the rising cost of living and more likely to be dependent on social security and public services.”

The two areas that men are more likely to prioritise than women are the economy (a key issue for 44% of men, compared to 28% of women) and immigration (27% of men vs 20% of women).

Women with caring responsibilities were more likely to prioritise care and education services compared to the average voter, with those caring for adults more than twice as likely to name social care as one of their top three priorities in their vote.

And women caring for children are more than three times as likely than the average voter to list childcare as one of their top priorities, with 35% naming education as a key voting issue for them, too.

“Women represent over half of eligible voters,” said Dr Zubaida Haque, deputy director and head of research at the Women’s Budget Group. “The fact that a quarter of women are currently undecided which way to vote should make parties sit up and notice.

“While the polling data indicate the continuation of a generational trend of women voters moving away from Conservatives and towards Labour, our polling shows that women’s votes are in no way guaranteed and should not be taken for granted by any political party.”

Women’s votes will likely swing the next general election, according to new data